Monday, March 23, 2020

Informed Decisions in Unprecedented Times


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Making Ethical Decisions for Your Family, Employees, and Children
We live in a time of misinformation. No one trusts due to political agendas and personal ideologies that pervade many people’s ability, to tell the truth. It is a fact that every person skews information in the direction of their opinion and many do not do it on purpose. There is a real tendency to create maladaptations of information by humans known as cognitive bias.
We all have implicit cognitive biases that cause unintentional and unrecognized logical fallacies in our ideas and beliefs. (If you're interested in learning more about logical pitfalls, I recommend checking out yourlogicalfallacyis.com.)
Understanding this simple psychological concept makes you a more accurate thinker and a better decision-maker. (Interesting fact: This is the human characteristic that is often exploited for manipulation by propaganda.) 
If we know the best ways to choose sources to get factual data, we can then use critical thinking to weigh all the relevant components and derive a logical perspective that fits our character, ethics, and beliefs. 
There are many places we get news and some are more trustworthy than others. Scholarly sources are usually our best bet for real intelligence. "Scholarly sources are those that have been approved by a group with recognized expertise in the field under discussion. Books published by University Presses fall into this category, as do articles published in peer-reviewed journals—journals where the editors send pieces out to be read by experts in the field before deciding to publish them. Scholarly sources are not infallible, but their publication process includes many steps for verifying facts, for reducing political bias, and for identifying conflicts of interest (for instance, for informing readers when a drug company has funded research on its own product)." (Yale University) 
To ensure integrity in compiling factual data I used credible and reliable sources of information. All sources used are cited and linked. Please look at the citation information to make sound judgments and use then use this information to think critically. We should come to educated conclusions that stand to reason rather than following illogical ideology for safety and fairness. It is important to look for conflicting information as it is often presented even within one article. Small nuances in wording make big differences in one's comprehension of the message.
It would be best if you made decisions from the facts based on your values and reasonings. Remember, all sources have a bias. Determining whether the writer's perspective matches your own values is paramount. Do they put most importance on family, truth, life, justice, equality, money, etc.? These understandings factor into the decisions you make about the source.

"By identifying our values, we can begin to design a life that is in better alignment with our true self. Keep in mind that values are different for everyone—you are the only one who can identify your values." (Davis, 2018)

Not sure if you should be working or not? Read the guidelines here: https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/cutting-through-the-fog-how-to-navigate-72516/

https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/CISA-Guidance-on-Essential-Critical-Infrastructure-Workers-1-20-508c.pdf

Important Facts to Consider:

    The coronavirus often infects clusters of family members, friends, and 
work colleagues. Leading experts agree on the steps that must be taken immediately.

  1.  Americans must be persuaded to stay home, they said. There should be a system put in place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home. 
  2. Travel restrictions should be extended, they said; productions of masks and ventilators must be accelerated, and testing problems must be resolved.  
  3. “The American way is to look for better outcomes through a voluntary system,” said Dr. Luciana Borio, former director of medical and biodefense preparedness for the National Security Council.

·       Experts are united in the opinion that politicians must step aside and let scientists lead the effort to contain the virus and explain to Americans what must be done. (Just as generals take the lead in wartime —medical experts should now explain complex ideas like epidemic curves, social distancing, and potential medications.

·       If all Americans froze in place for 14 days the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt. The virus would die out on every contaminated surface and it would be evident who is infected.

·       If we had enough tests for every American, even those with no symptoms, cases could be found and isolated. The crisis would be over. But we do not have enough tests.

·      The goal of lockdowns and social distancing is to approximate that "freeze."

·      The chief medical adviser to the White House Coronavirus Task Force agrees and advocates restrictive measures all across the country.

·      The weaker the shut-down that we employ, the more people will get sick and potentially die in overburdened hospitals. This extends the time it takes for the economy to restart.  
Source reliability information:



Facts about coronavirus:

 https://www.factcheck.org/a-guide-to-our-coronavirus-coverage/

·      The virus causes a pneumonia-like respiratory illness that varies in severity but can be deadly. Symptoms include fever, cough, and shortness of breath.
·      In some cases, people are infected but have no symptoms. 
·      It’s not yet known how frequently people die from COVID-19. The reported fatality rates have fluctuated, hovering around 2-3% in late January, and around 4% as of March 18. (For comparison, SARS killed around 10% of infected people, if not more, while seasonal influenza typically kills 0.1% or less.)
·      According to a February study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 14% of cases in mainland China were severe and 5% were critical.
·      People who are infected do not show symptoms until around 4 days later. That time could range from 2 to 14 days. Even though they have no symptoms, people can transmit the virus to others during that period. Because of this, people who have few or no symptoms may be responsible for the bulk of the disease spread.
·      It is possible to contract the disease by touching contaminated surfaces and then touching your face. A study released in mid-March found the virus could be detected for up to 24 hours on cardboard and much longer on hard surfaces including plastic and stainless steel — the virus can live for up to two to three days.
·      It’s unclear exactly how infectious the virus is. Using a variety of methods, figures generally range from 1.5 to 4. This suggests the transmissibility is roughly in line with that of SARS, but below that of the measles virus, which has an R0 of around 12 to 18. Measles are one of the most infectious viruses in the world. https://www.factcheck.org/a-guide-to-our-coronavirus-coverage/

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The statistics from Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) on infection/death rates are no longer reporting a nation-wide number of deaths. They are now breaking it down by state- or in some cases, counties within a state. They even listed the two separate cruise ships as entities. 
 Adding every county up by hand, the U.S. has 392 deaths as of 10am per this John-Hopkins map. That puts the U.S. in 5th place for # of deaths. Far above Germany and just behind France. We are currently in 3rd place for confirmed cases of the virus (although that number of cases is extremely low versus the reality because testing is not being done and we must consider that people are contagious before ever showing signs that they are sick.) https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6















Citations:

Brandeis University. (2020, March 12). Retrieved March 23, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brandeis_University

Center for Science. (n.d.). Global Cases at Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Retrieved March 23, 2020, from https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Davis, T. (2018, July 12). 39 Core Values—and How to Live by Them. Retrieved March 23, 2020, from https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/click-here-happiness/201807/39-core-values-and-how-live-them

Factcheck.org. (n.d.). Retrieved March 23, 2020, from     https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/?s=factcheck.org

Health System Tracker. (n.d.). Hospital beds per capita. Retrieved March 23, 2020, from https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/indicator/quality/hospital-beds-per-capita/

Mcneil, D. G. (2020, March 22). Harsh Steps Are Needed to Stop the Coronavirus, Experts Say. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Media Bias Fact Check: New York Times. (n.d.). Retrieved March 23, 2020, from https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/new-york-times/

Yale University. (n.d.). Scholarly vs. Popular Sources: Poorvu Center for Teaching and Learning. Retrieved March 23, 2020, from https://poorvucenter.yale.edu/writing/using-sources/principles-citing-sources/scholarly-vs-popular-sources